Palaeoclimate constraints narrow uncertainty in future Arctic winter sea ice projections and point to lower ice extent
Using 46 mid-Holocene biomarker records and 27 climate models, researchers weighted models by how well they matched ~6,000-year-old sea ice evidence. The weighted ensemble removes the models' winter ice bias, cuts uncertainty by 85%, and projects winter sea ice extent nearly 1 million km² lower than unweighted estimates.
